An operational framework for the short-term forecasting of inflation

Over the last 15 years the Greek economy has made significant progress towards macroeconomic stability with a remarkable degree of inflation containment both in levels and volatility. These changes in inflation dynamics have implications for the short term forecasting of inflation. This paper proposes a framework to forecast Greek inflation (measured by both the National and the Harmonised indices, and the subcomponents of HICP) at an 18-month horizon by blending pure econometric model based forecasts with expert judgement. A rolling out of sample forecasting exercise as well as a battery of standard statistical tests suggests that the proposed underlying dynamic econometric model with the inclusion of variables reflecting economic activity, domestic and foreign costs, exchange rates etc. forecast encompasses simple benchmark specifications. This conclusion seems reasonably robust to alternative competing benchmarks.inflation forecasting

Freeze/thaw stress induces organelle remodeling and membrane recycling in cryopreserved human mature oocytes

Purpose: Our aim was to evaluate the ultrastructure of human metaphase II oocytes subjected to slow freezing and fixed after thawing at different intervals during post-thaw rehydration. Methods: Samples were studied by light and transmission electron microscopy. Results: We found that vacuolization was present in all cryopreserved oocytes, reaching a maximum in the intermediate stage of rehydration. Mitochondria-smooth endoplasmic reticulum (M-SER) aggregates decreased following thawing, particularly in the first and intermediate stages of rehydration, whereas mitochondria-vesicle (MV) complexes augmented in the same stages. At the end of rehydration, vacuoles and MV complexes both diminished and M-SER aggregates increased again. Cortical granules (CGs) were scarce in all cryopreserved oocytes, gradually diminishing as rehydration progressed. Conclusions: This study also shows that such a membrane remodeling is mainly represented by a dynamic process of transition between M-SER aggregates and MV complexes, both able of transforming into each other. Vacuoles and CG membranes may take part in the membrane recycling mechanism

Videoconferencing analytic psychodrama in treating young adults’ psychological suffering : preliminary results

The study aims to explore the effects that videoconferencing Analytic Psychodrama (AP) has on the psychological wellbeing and emotional competence of young adults who are suffering from mental health problems. Twenty-two undergraduate students, asking for help at the Psychological Counselling Service of the University of Bologna for anxiety-depressive problems, took part in the three online groups that met weekly from October 2020 to July 2021. The Clinical Outcomes in Routine Evaluation Outcome Measure, the Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire Short Form, the Toronto Alexithymia Scale, the Interpersonal Reactivity Index, and the Group Climate Questionnaire were used as test-retest questionnaires for clinical outcomes, emotional competence, and group climate evaluations. There was a statistically significant difference between the pre-test and 10-month scores for patients in clinical outcomes. Alexithymia significantly decreased and emotional intelligence and group engagement increased post-intervention. Videoconferencing AP sounds promising for alleviating psychological problems and to improve young adults' emotional competence

Break in volition: a virtual reality study in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder

Research in obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) produced inconsistent results in demonstrating an association between patients' symptom severity and their cognitive impairments. The process involved in volition aspects of behavioral syndromes can be extensively analyzed using specific tests developed in virtual environments, more suitable to manipulate rules and possible breaks of the normal task execution with different, confusing or stopping instructions. The study involved thirty participants (15 OCD patients and 15 controls) during task execution and the relative interferences. At this purpose, the virtual version of Multiple Errands Test was used. Virtual reality setting, with a higher ecological validity respect to a classic neuropsychological battery, allowed us to take into account deficits of volition and the relative dysexecutive functions associated with OCD patients. The proposed paradigm also allows the development of innovative prototypes of coevolving technologies based on new theories and models and deeper understanding of human behavior

Epidemiological findings on interventional cardiology procedures during the COVID-19 pandemic: A multi-center study

Background: The rates of in-hospital mortality following percutaneous interventional procedures (PIP) during the COVID-19 pandemic period compared to the non-pandemic period has not been reported so far. Methods: We retrospectively enrolled all consecutive patients admitted for PIP across five centers from February 2020 to May 2020. Results: A total of 4092 PIP were performed during the reference periods. The total number of procedures dropped from 2380 to 1712 (28.0% reduction). Overall in-hospital mortality increased from 1.1% in 2019, to 2.6% in 2020 (63% relative increase). Conclusion: During the COVID-19 pandemic, in-hospital all-cause mortality significantly increased in patients admitted for cardiological PIP

Higher viral load and infectivity increase risk of aerosol transmission for Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2.

Airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is an important route of infection. For the wildtype (WT) only a small proportion of those infected emitted large quantities of the virus. The currently prevalent variants of concern, Delta (B1.617.2) and Omicron (B.1.1.529), are characterized by higher viral loads and a lower minimal infective dose compared to the WT. We aimed to describe the resulting distribution of airborne viral emissions and to reassess the risk estimates for public settings given the higher viral load and infectivity. We reran the Monte Carlo modelling to estimate viral emissions in the fine aerosol size range using available viral load data. We also updated our tool to simulate indoor airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by including a CO2 calculator and recirculating air cleaning devices. We also assessed the consequences of the lower critical dose on the infection risk in public settings with different protection strategies. Our modelling suggests that a much larger proportion of individuals infected with the new variants are high, very high or super-emitters of airborne viruses: for the WT, one in 1,000 infected was a super-emitter; for Delta one in 30; and for Omicron one in 20 or one in 10, depending on the viral load estimate used. Testing of the effectiveness of protective strategies in view of the lower critical dose suggests that surgical masks are no longer sufficient in most public settings, while correctly fitted FFP2 respirators still provide sufficient protection, except in high aerosol producing situations such as singing or shouting. From an aerosol transmission perspective, the shift towards a larger proportion of very high emitting individuals, together with the strongly reduced critical dose, seem to be two important drivers of the aerosol risk, and are likely contributing to the observed rapid spread of the Delta and Omicron variants of concern. Reducing contacts, always wearing well-fitted FFP2 respirators when indoors, using ventilation and other methods to reduce airborne virus concentrations, and avoiding situations with loud voices seem critical to limiting these latest waves of the COVID-19 pandemic

Exposure to a maternal cafeteria diet changes open-field behaviour in the developing offspring

The early postnatal period is a sensitive period in rodents as behavioural systems are developing and maturing during this time. However, little is currently known about the behavioural effects of feeding a hyper-energetic cafeteria diet (CD) during the lactational period when offspring behaviour is tested during early adolescence. To this end, 23 days old offspring from dams (Wistar) fed on CD during lactation were tested in either the open-field or the elevated plus-maze for exploration and anxiety-related behaviour. On postnatal day 9, maternal behaviour and non-maternal behaviour of the dam was assessed. It was hypothesized that lactational CD feeding would reduce anxiety in the offspring. CD-fed dams had a higher energy intake, due to an overconsumption of sugars and fats. When offspring from these dams were exposed to the open field after weaning, their locomotor activity was increased. They entered the more aversive inner zone of the open-field after a shorter latency, made more entries into and spent more time in the inner zone. Anxiety-related behaviour was not affected upon exposure to the elevated plus maze, suggesting anxiolysis in the open-field only. Increased maternal licking/grooming behaviour could possibly contribute to the anxiolytic phenotype as observed in the offspring from the CD group. In conclusion, we demonstrate that lactational overfeeding impacts on the development of behaviour in the early adolescent rat

Sleep dysfunctions influence decision making in undemented Parkinson's disease patients: a study in a virtual supermarket

In the early-middle stages of Parkinson's disease (PD), polysomnographic studies show early alterations of the structure of the sleep, which may explain frequent symptoms reported by patients, such as daytime drowsiness, loss of attention and concentration, feeling of tiredness. The aim of this study was to verify if there is a correlation between the sleep dysfunction and decision making ability. We used a Virtual Reality version of the Multiple Errand Test (VMET), developed using the NeuroVR free software (http://www.neurovr2.org), to evaluate decision-making ability in 12 PD not-demented patients and 14 controls. Five of our not-demented 12 PD patients showed abnormalities in the polysomnographic recordings associated to significant differences in the VMET performance